Monday, August 23, 2010

Seeing the Future

So the raft was in the water, the rods were all strung up, and the gear was almost stowed. The sun reflecting off the diamond chop riffles made it seem like we were giant rock stars with tiny camera flashes bursting around us. The day was starting off well.


Me, Hippie Dave, and John the Baptist (my buddy, not the guy from the Bible) were eager to get fishing. Lugging the ice chest from the truck, I was the last one to the boat. As I walked through the knee-high grass, a swarm of grasshoppers parted before me like President Obama parting the Gulf of Mexico.

I took the first turn on the oars, which I didn’t mind because the fishing’s been slow first thing in the morning. Settling into a comfortable rhythm, I noticed there wasn’t a cloud in the sky.

From the seat behind me, Dave said, “Dude, the weatherman’s predicting that it’s gonna be a great day, and I’m predicting that we’re gonna boat 50 fish…at least 3 over 20 inches.”

We were wearing shades ‘cause our future was most definitely bright.

By the time we got to O’Brian’s Bar and Grill and ordered drinks, we’d caught 4 fish, none over 10 inches. The weather turned sour when a thunderstorm came in, bringing lightning and dangerous winds. A powerful gust sheared off the top a tall cottonwood, which nearly landed right on top of us.

After a shot of Jagermeister, I said, “Dave, I gotta say, you and the weatherman are terrible at forecasting. I wish there was some way to really predict the future so we wouldn’t have to spend another day on the river like that.”

“Actually,” said John, “there is.”

He went on to tell us about this company called Recorded Future that uses its Temporal Analytics Engine (sounds like something Spock might come up with in a “Star Trek” episode to explain how Kirk miraculously appears in time to save Scotty from the brain-eating weevils) to sort through real-time data on the internet to predict the future. They comb through tens of thousands of websites and find the hidden links to people, places and events to determine the momentum of each item in their index.

For a small monthly fee, you can use their tools to predict the future of anything you want. Their website says their clients include investment firms, marketing and public relations firms, and national defense and security agencies.

When I told John he was full of it, he said, “No, really. Google Ventures just made a big investment in the company, and In-Q-Tel, which invests money for the CIA in companies to develop new technology, is also a major backer. They must believe it works”

That got me to thinking.

You know who could use some help predicting the future…Vice President Joe Biden. His ability to forecast the economy and employment sucks.

According to TheNewAmerican.com, back on April 28 at a fundraiser in Pittsburgh, Biden gave a speech where he said, “All in all, we’re going to be creating somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 jobs next month.” And he continued with, “I’m here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.”

That was over 3 months ago, and Joe’s jobs are nowhere to be found. In July, employment decreased by 131,000. Private sector jobs increased by only 71,000, which the New York Times reported as being about half the number needed just to accommodate population growth. Last week, initial jobless claims totaled 500,000, and the trend is going up.

On February 25, 2009, the First Recovery Plan Implementation Meeting was held at the White House – the transcript is posted at whitehouse.gov. Talking about the $787 billion stimulus package, Biden said, “This is about getting this out and spent in 18 months to create 3.5 million jobs.” He went on to say that the spending “literally drop-kicks us out of this recession.”

The 18 months is over, and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 3.3 million jobs have been lost and unemployment has gone from 7.7% to 9.5%. Department of Commerce statistics show that consumer spending is barely creeping along and personal income is flat. Someone should literally drop-kick some sense into the Vice President.

It doesn’t take a weatherman, a voodoo priestess or a CIA backed analytics firm to know that the economy is in the outhouse, folks need jobs, and companies aren’t rushing out to hire right now. Maybe Joe could improve his predictions by adding Dionne Warwick and her Psychic Friends Network to his economic advisory staff. It couldn’t hurt.

I don’t know, I guess I think too hard about these things.

Monday, August 16, 2010

A Whack in the Crotch

So there I was, sitting in the shade by the river, eating a roast beef sandwich. I’d found a nice fallen log to act as both table and chair, and it felt good to be out of the sun taking a break from fishing.


Just as I was finishing up, my pal Cap’n Billy floated by with a couple of his buddies and his dog Streamer. I waved, and they rowed over to see if I wanted any company for lunch. They were more than welcome.

While they unloaded their cooler, I said hello to Streamer. She’s an energetic 2-year old black lab whose passion is playing fetch. I figured I’d give the boys a break and keep her busy while they ate. Otherwise, she’d be bringing them sticks to throw the whole time.

I picked up a sturdy piece of wood, and Streamer began to bounce around like a punk-rocker in a mosh pit. I told her to sit, which she did, and I tossed the stick down the bank. She took off and snatched it up the second it hit the ground, gnawing and shaking it like House Democrat mauling a budget proposal.

As she trotted back to me with her prize, she suddenly stopped, dove into a bush, and rooted around. After some thrashing and snarling, she emerged with a branch about 4 feet long and 2 and a half inches thick. When Streamer plays fetch, she prefers the heavy stuff.

Using both hands, I tossed the massive limb as far as I could, which wasn’t very far. She eagerly brought it back without any strain.

After a couple of minutes, I got tired and was ready to call it quits. I turned and began to walk away, but Streamer rushed in front of me, blocking my way with the enormous stick.

Cap’n Billy saw what was happening and called out, “Streamer! Come here, and leave Dusty alone.”

The dog whipped her head around to look at her master, and the end of the branch buried itself in the sensitive part of my groin area. I let out a “whuff” and fell to the ground, clutching my personal business. Through the searing man-pain, I could hear distant laughter, and I knew that if Bob Sagat were here, he’d be writing me a check for $10,000.

One thing’s for sure…if Streamer ever wants me to throw a stick again, I’m going to do it. I don’t need to take another beating like that.

That got me to thinking.

Some folks, just like Streamer, get so single-mindedly obsessed on an issue that they’re oblivious to the people around them. Take fer instance, Marty Essen, self-described “Multi-award-winning author and college speaker.”

Never heard of him? Well, neither had I until our local newspaper, the Ravalli Republic, ran a front-page article on him. He’s got a web site called turnofffoxnews.com where he asks “airports, hotels, bars, restaurants, and other public locations to Turn Off Fox News.” Essen believes that in these places where there’s a “captive audience” the network is being forced upon people who “aren’t politically aware enough to realize they’re watching the broadcast news equivalent of professional wrestling.”

As proof of the evils of Fox News, the most watched cable news channel in America, he directs folks to mediamatters.org, a 501(c)(3) dedicated to “correcting conservative misinformation in the U.S. media.” Now there’s a group that sounds fair and balanced.

Essen states that Fox’s actions “undermine elections, belittle the environment, embolden the paranoid, enrich the rich, and in general, divide our country.” Wow, that’s one powerful TV station. It must be run by aliens trying to take over the planet – or am I just being paranoid.

Essen doesn’t have similar complaints about MSNBC or CNN, which I find are aired in plenty of public places. And I reckon he’s never heard of Ezra Klein of The Washington Post and his group, JournoList.

In case you aren’t aware, the JList was a secret group started by Klein made up of left-wing journalists, about 400 of them, who conspired to influence the nation’s media coverage to promote liberal ideas and candidates. They even worked actively with Obama and other candidates to help them develop talking points that they could cover favorably. They disbanded in June after being exposed, but many have already formed a new secret group called Cabalist.

What gets to me is that Essen and all the other single-minded whiners of any political persuasion complain about being subjected to one-sided media coverage, while subjecting the rest of us to their one-sided bias of the media. They’d prefer to whack us in the crotch with a stick until we conform to their beliefs rather than do the simple thing – don’t watch the TV.

I don’t know, I guess I think too hard about these things.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Hail to the Beauty Queen

So after a full day of fishing, I stopped off at O’Brian’s Bar and Grill for a cold one. Stinky Pete came in with one of his clients, and they sat down next to me at the bar.


Dressed in his pressed slacks and Orvis shirt, the banker/lawyer told me about what a big cheese he was back in New York. Then, after surveying the room, Mr. Wall Street zeroed in on a family having dinner at a table in the corner.

“Look at that guy,” he says to me. “With that long ponytail, scraggly teeth and Bud Light t-shirt. Don’t people around here believe in dentists? I bet he doesn’t even know what a mortgage-backed security is.”

“Now wait a minute, Hot Shot,” I tell him, trying to hide my anger. “I know that guy. Sure he’s got a ponytail, but it’s neat and combed. His t-shirt is clean, and he probably can’t afford a lot of dental work.

“He’s a trucker, and he provides for his family. Look at how well-behaved his children are. That’s because he spends time with them.

“You think you’re better than him because you’ve got a bunch of money, but he works a lot harder at both his job and his family than you ever will. And besides, he’d never say anything bad about a stranger he’s never met just because of the way they look.”

I got up and left before I lost my temper.

That got me to thinking.

What the hell is wrong with people these days?

Take fer instance Mike Hart, a professional bass fisherman, who was recently caught cheating at the US Open fishing tournament. He stuffed 2-ounce lead weights down the throats of the fish he presented for weigh-in.

Normally, the bass are weighed and released, but if they die, they’re filleted, and the meat is sent to a charity. Hart attached treble hooks to the lead sinkers so they would catch in the throat of the bass, hoping that they wouldn’t be found if the fish were cut open.

That’s exactly the reason why fishing should be about fun, family and getting together with your pals, not about competition, cash prizes or corporate sponsors. Hart was banned for life from professional tournaments, but the only fitting punishment would’ve been to shove lead weights on hooks down his throat.

And how about Bristol Palin, who got pregnant while her mother was running for Vice President, got engaged to the baby-daddy, called off the wedding, and then announced her re-engagement in Us Weekly. Well, she and Levi Johnston broke up again. In fact, they broke up on the day the magazine hit the stands, but we had to wait for the latest issue of People to find out.

According to Bristol, Levi only wanted media attention (said the girl who’s telling her life story each month in celebrity gossip magazines). She may have a point, though, because Levi’s publicist said that he’s hired a trainer to get his body in shape for his upcoming Playgirl spread, which should be on the shelves in time for the holidays. Take that as free gift advice for all you fellers looking for something for the hard-to-please lady in your life.

Speaking of media whores with no shame, President Obama skipped the Boy Scouts’ Jamboree, celebrating the organization’s 100th anniversary, to appear on “The View.” The Scouts could’ve taught the President a few things about what it means to be a man, but instead he chose to face the hard-hitting questions about Snooki, the girl on the realty show “Jersey Shore.”

Why would the President blow off such a traditional event to appear on a daytime TV talk show? Because Boy Scouts are too young to vote. Women who sit on the couch eating bon bons, watching Whoopi and Joy, and living off government programs that are paid for by working peoples’ taxes (like Hillary Clinton) are Barack’s key constituency.

When is Obama going to start acting like the President of the United States instead of some beauty pageant contestant? While he was running for the title of Miss Everybody-in-the-Universe-Loves-Me, he talked about Hope, Change, and of course, World Peace. Now that he’s won the crown (with Joe Biden as first runner-up), all he still cares about is how much folks like him. So he smiles, looks good in his swimsuit, blames everyone else, and avoids making the decisions that will reduce government spending, create jobs, lower taxes, and put our economy back on track. In the meantime, he panders to the bon bon eaters, and makes sure that it’s business as usual in Washington.

You know, whether you’re a long-haired trucker raising a family or the President of the United States, it’s how you act that defines who you really are.

I don’t know, I guess I think too hard about these things.

Monday, August 2, 2010

No Clue

So my pal Stinky Pete didn’t have any clients booked, and he wanted to know if I’d like to go fishing. Of course I would.


We decided not to get on the river too early, because the morning water temperatures are still pretty chilly. The fish need time to wake up, read the paper, and have a cup of coffee before they’re ready to start the day. We put in around 10:00 or 10:30, and we were an hour behind the major surge of boats.

That didn’t mean we had the river to ourselves, though. There were still plenty of wade-fishermen, and we ran into a few other boats as we worked our way down a fairly long stretch.

Whooping and hollering as they passed us, a group of young college kids were piled on a raft with about 42 coolers of beer. A golden haired girl in the back, who was nearly bursting out of her little pink bikini top, looked like she’d rather be somewhere else. The dude with his arm around her, waving a whiskey bottle in the other hand had no idea that she wasn’t having a good time.

The fishing was fairly consistent with small trout hitting our stonefly imitations throughout the day. But nothing bigger than 14 inches was interested in feeding despite all the bugs hatching.

In all my years on the Bitterroot, I’d never caught a brook trout. For some reason they’ve eluded me like I’m the CIA and they’re Osama Bin Laden. They must be getting help from the Pakistani ISI. But on this day, I caught 3.

Near the end of the day, a raft floated by with 2 guys using spinning gear. I’m used to seeing spin-fishermen wading, but this year there are a couple of guides who’ve decided to be carriers of this infection.

When I ask a first-time fly-fisher how was their day on the river, I almost always get a positive response. If I ask a spin-fisher the same question, I get a hate-filled glare and some mumbled excuse about how the fish weren’t biting that day. I think guides on the Bitterroot should make their clients fly-fish; they tend to have more fun and catch more fish.

The 2 fellers in the boat were chucking big gold and silver spoons towards the bank. I asked how they were doing and got the answer I expected. The guy in the front said, “Haven’t caught anything all day.”

As he was saying this, he raised his rod, and there was a 5-inch rainbow dangling from his shiny metal lure. “You have now,” I told him, and he was completely amazed to see proof that fish actually do live in this river.

After they got out of earshot, Stinky chuckled, and said, “Man, those pecker-heads don’t have a clue.”

That got me to thinking.

Some folks are so far out of touch that, in order for their brains to deal with it, they create their own reality and expect the rest of us to believe it. Like Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner with his views on the economy.

Recently, he told ABC’s This Week, “Now, we’ve seen six months of positive job growth by the private sector. That’s pretty good.”

If you look at the numbers, in June there was an overall loss of 125,000 jobs due to census workers being laid off. Private sector jobs created this year total a little over 500,000, but unemployment is at 9.5%, and there are 14.6 million Americans out of work, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Doesn’t sound pretty good to me.

He’s also in favor of letting the Bush tax cuts expire for families making over $250,000. He said that it’s the responsible thing to do because we need to show the world that we’re willing to “make some progress bringing down our long-term deficits.” Here’s a hint: stop spending trillions of dollars on new programs that we can’t afford.

Geithner went on to say that letting the tax cuts expire would not have a negative effect on our economic growth. However, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that extending the tax cuts would strengthen our economy and provide stimulus for growth.

Geithner works for a federal agency that prints money and issues debt and whose job it is to implement the President’s economic policy. Bernanke works for our nation’s central bank which directly influences our country’s economy through its actions, and while it’s ultimately regulated by Congress, it operates independently of the government.

In my opinion, one of these guys probably fly-fishes and the other one is a pecker-head who doesn’t have a clue.

I don’t know, I guess I think too hard about these things.